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Dry Stretch for October

The beautiful weather has been a welcomed sight for weeks...but it is time to start worrying about our lack of rain around here.
The beautiful weather has been a welcomed sight for weeks...but it is time to start worrying about our lack of rain around here.  For the last several weeks our grass have been aching for rain drops in the Natural State.  You can tell just by looking at the graphic above.  It's hard enough to get clouds in here let alone rain drops.  Until today, we went over a week without even seeing a single cloud in the state!

                                      (Cirrus clouds today on Carver Magnet Elementary School's weatherBug camera)  

                                                              (Upper level high directly over Arkansas)

The main reason for the lack of rain or clouds for that matter is in response to the upper level high covering the Central Plains.  Lately this upper level high (ridge) has been giving off subsidence - where air gradually sinks over a broad area.  This subtle sinking motion prevents cloud droplets from forming and hinders your chance of rain.  Many people confuse this process because they think that rain gravitates to the ground.  Thus, you need sinking motion in the atmosphere to promote rain...but honestly it's exactly the opposite.


                  (GFS model shows rain by next week Tuesday)

                                  (European model shows rain for next week Wednesday)

There is hope for the future.  Several weather models indicate that the upper level high will break down sometime next week and allow a cold front to slip through the state.  This change in the flow will actually promote lift in the atmosphere and give us an opportunity for rain.  It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when this change will occur but it will be something to watch for in the next few days.
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