Flooding Mayhem

Flooding Mayhem

Heavy rain and lightning blasted Central Arkansas last night. Could it be worse for tonight?

Mother Nature wasn't playing around at all last night.  Let me set the scene for you.  Everyone, including myself went to bed thinking we see a couple thunderstorms roam through Central and Northern Arkansas but man did we get a lot more than that. A strong cold front stalled over parts of Central Arkansas early this morning.  As that occured, warm, moist air rose over the front, thus a train track of thunderstorms rolled through the state all night long starting around midnight.

The rain didn't come to an end until the middle of the morning hours...what was left over was simply amazing.  A whopping 5" plus of rain in many spots especially in Little Rock and Hot Springs. 

Since the ground was already soaked from last weeks heavy rain, there wasn't anywhere for it go except on the streets.  Therefore we had parts of I-30 shut down temporarily.

But enough of the past, let's get to the future.  Tonight could be noisy again and produce a large amount of rain.  The cold front that I mentioned earlier is still draped across the state and now a fairly large upper level disturbance is about to overrun our region.  This will set the stage for more clusters of thunderstorms to move through Arkansas.  You can see them already forming in Oklahoma this evening.

                          (Weather model showing thunderstorms moving through by midnight)

                                  (Weather model shows 4" bulls eye of rain from Mena to Conway)

The big question lurking in everyone's mind is how much?  After countless hours were spent looking at over 10 weather models...I can say were up for anywhere between 1-4" of additional rain.  A few local spots could pick up near 5" but that seems rare at this hour.

In other words, if you're able to sleep through the night you'll need to prepare for road closures or at the least some heavy traffic in the morning hours.

Once this soggy wet pattern leaves the region we'll feel temperatures cool off to the 50's and 60's.  I do want to point out that fog could be an issue in Little Rock Wednesday/Thursday morning.  So there could be a slight delay picking up those loved ones at the airport.

UPCOMING WEEKEND:  It will be all rosy and sunny the rest of the week.  In fact, another strong upper level disturbance is already being prepped to swing through the deep south this upcoming weekend.

                       (GFS model showing a wintry mix possible for NE Arkansas late on Sunday.)

As this system arrives on Saturday we'll have another batch of thunderstorms roll through the state.  Then a big shot of cold air will follow up on Sunday with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30's and 40's.  One model (GFS) shows some moisture wrapping around on the back end of the system late on Sunday.  If this is right we could see our first snowflakes in Northeast Arkansas.  We're not talking about a major accumulation of snow here.  In fact, even if the atmosphere is able to squeeze out a couple snowflakes they won't be able to accumulate so there won't be any worries there.  This will be just something to watch out for in the next several days.  Overall, my gut is telling me this won't happen but I thought I'd share it with you.

Alright weather fans, that was a lengthy discussion for a very unsettled weather pattern ahead.  Hope you get plenty of sleep and enjoy your holiday travels.
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