A very slow moving storm system will bring several rounds of heavy rain and the threat for a few strong storms. As of early Monday afternoon, a slow moving upper air low pressure system was moving toward the Plains with widespread rain and storms spreading through Oklahoma and Texas.
A few strong storms will be possible, mainly across Western Arkansas through tonight as storms move out of Oklahoma late Monday evening. Strong gusty winds are possible with these storms, as well as an isolated tornado threat. Below is the Severe Outlook form the Storm Prediction Center through Monday Night. Parts of extreme West Central Arkansas, including the Mena area in Polk County, are under a MODERATE risk for severe storms. The rest of the Western half of Arkansas is under a SLIGHT risk. Note the Little Rock metro area is not in the Slight risk.
As the upper low pressure system cuts off from the main flow, the band of rain and storms will slow down and eventually stall across Western Arkansas late Monday night into Tuesday, this will create a significant flood threat. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of Western Arkansas through Wednesday
The band of rain and storms will only make very slow progress, not even reaching the Little Rock metro area until as late as Wednesday afternoon. This scenario will create excessive rainfall amounts, especially for Western Arkansas. Below is our computer model rainfall projection through Thursday
Rainfall across Western Arkansas will generally range from 4 to 6 inches through Thursday, however, isolated amounts to as much as 10 inches are not out of the question. These kind of rainfall amounts will cause significant flash flooding in spots. Initially, small creek ans stream and road flooding will be the main issue with river flooding an increasing threat even after the rain comes to an end. Rainfall amounts over Central Arkansas will be less, but some flooding problems will still be possible with 1 to 3 inch amounts. Rain amounts will fall off quickly East of the Little Rock area with only a minimal flood threat.
Pay close attention to all warnings over the next couple of days and be prepared to take action if necessary. Remember, flash flooding is usually responsible for more deaths per year than tornadoes in Arkansas. Under no circumstance is it safe to cross a flooded road. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN