After hinting at a threat for strong storms Monday, computer models are beginning to converge on a different solution for the first week of April. Instead of a strong cold front moving through on Monday, a slower, weaker cold front will move through Arkansas more toward the middle of the week.
The reason for the much slower front is a big change in the way the computer models are handling the upper air pattern. It now appears the main jet stream will retreat North, leaving a slow moving cut off low pressure system over The Southwest. Below is the upper air pattern forecast by one of the computer models for Monday Evening.
This slower moving pattern would mean Monday would stay mostly dry and continued very warm. By Tuesday, the upper low likely won't move very much, barely reaching The Central Plains.
Models typically struggle with the handling of how these cut off lows move, which keeps the uncertainty with the forecast for next week quite high. There still is considerable spread among the models concerning just how fast the low will move out, and even whether or not it goes North or South of Arkansas by later in the week. The good news is this type of pattern is not as conducive for widespread severe weather as what was previously indicated by the computer models. It does still appear that next week will be unsettled with a decent shot at some rain and a few thunderstorms for the middle part of next week.