A big change in our weather pattern is on the way for next week as we go from unusually warm to wet. A cold front will advance through The Plains early next week with a line of heavy rain and storms. The front will approach Arkansas by late Monday night, although there is still some uncertainty as to the timing of the front. By Monday 6 PM Monday afternoon, our computer forecast shows the position of the line of rain and storms stretching from Northwest Missouri through Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Texas.
This will likely be a very slow moving frontal boundary. A deep trough of low pressure will make slow progress moving East, and with upper level winds blowing almost parallel to the front, the associated line of rain and storms will move very slowly as well allowing heavy rains to linger over the same spots for several hours. The strong jet stream winds will also aid in the development of a few strong storms along the leading edge of the advancing line.
Due to the slow movement of the front, heavy rain is likely for parts of the State, especially Western Arkansas. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches across Western Arkansas through Wednesday with lesser amounts East. This would be enough to cause flooding in some spots.
A few strong storms may also accompany the front with the possibility of severe weather. It is still too early to determine what kind of severe weather threat exists, but special attention should be paid to this weather scenario from Monday night through Tuesday.