A strong cold front will approach Arkansas Tuesday. As the front moves into the warm, moist air accompanied by a strong jet stream aloft, potentially strong to severe thunderstorms will develop.
Strong to severe storms will continue to push through Central Arkansas during the evening hours. A tornado watch is in effect for all of Central Arkansas through 1 AM
(Current Watches and Warnings)
Storms will develop into a squall line with locally damaging wind gusts as the storms push Eastward into Central Arkansas. The greatest risk for storms in Central Arkansas is during the evening hours, especially between about 7PM and 11PM. Below is our computer model projection for 8PM, showing the storms over Central Arkansas.
Storms will push through Eastern Arkansas during the late evening hours and out of the State by shortly after Midnight.
Along with strong damaging wind gusts, isolated embedded tornadoes are possible along the squall line due to the strong wind shear. Below is the Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for tomorrow. All of Arkansas is under a risk area for severe storms. A moderate risk has been issued for parts of Central, Southern and Eastern Arkansas where the severe threat is greatest
Very strong wind shear along with warm, moist air in place ahead of the front will create an environment conducive for spin-ups to develop along the squall line. These spin-ups may create tornadoes, and due to the strong wind field in place any tornado that does form may be strong to violent (EF2 or higher) The storm prediction Center has placed much of Arkansas in a enhanced risk for EF2 or stronger tornadoes for Tuesday evening as indicated within the purple line .
(probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point)
Most storms will exit the State by shortly after Midnight.