UAMS COVID-19 forecast compares situation in Arkansas to forest fire


A healthcare worker fills a syringe with Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine at a community vaccination event in a predominately Latino neighborhood in Los Angeles, California, August 11, 2021. – All teachers in California will have to be vaccinated against Covid-19 or submit to weekly virus tests, Governor Gavin Newsom announced on August 11, as authorities grapple with exploding infection rates. The number of people testing positive for the disease has surged in recent weeks, with the highly infectious Delta variant blamed for the bulk of new cases. (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) (Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences released its latest COVID-19 forecast Tuesday, comparing the situation in Arkansas to a raging forest fire that will grow in size and strength.

Doctors predict the highest relative growth in cases will be in children 17 and younger, with more than 10,000 new cases in children by August 30.

They also predict that new cases could surpass more than 4,000 daily within the next 15 days.

Researchers also note that the state’s death toll from the pandemic could reach 7,000. If that prediction holds true, UAMS doctors say COVID-19 will have killed more Arkansans than all the wars in the 20th and 21st centuries.

As of Tuesday, the state of Arkansas reported the total number of cases of COVID-19 ever reported in the state grew to 438,465 while the number of Arkansans who have died due to the virus now sits at 6,749.

State data showed that 501 cases were reported in the last day in those 10 and under and an additional 345 cases in those aged 11 to 17.

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