Tuesday will be a warm, windy, and humid day with storms developing late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Severe storms are possible with a chance of damaging wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. The highest risk is over west and north central Arkansas.

The highest risk is over parts of west & north central Arkansas including Mena, De Queen, Waldron, Russellville, Center Ridge, Clinton, Mountain View, and Mountain Home. Last Friday’s event had a level 5 out of 5.

A lot of the ingredients for severe weather are going to be present, but it doesn’t appear that they are lining up at the same time. There is still some uncertainty in the potency and timing of storms for this reason. Either way, we need to be weather-aware Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model is the most aggressive with storm Tuesday night by 8pm.

Storms may come in two waves. The trend has storms slowing down. We may have a couple of supercell thunderstorms Tuesday evening in west or northwest Arkansas with tornado potential and large hail threat due to a favorable shear environment and sufficient instability.

A second wave will likely form ahead of a cold front early Wednesday. These storms may be more conducive to a damaging wind threat, with a lower tornado threat as they move into and through central Arkansas from 5 am to noon. The highest risk for severe storms will be in the early morning hours.

An additional ½-1″ of rain is forecast for Arkansas as rain and storms move through Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Most storms should be out of the state before 2 pm Wednesday.