LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – It’s no secret it’s been very dry the last few weeks. Most counties ended September around 1-2 inches below average for rainfall, after a mostly dry August.

Our current drought monitor shows severe drought across most of central Arkansas, with moderate drought around northern Arkansas. Much of southern Arkansas is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

While the forecast for next week looks dry, there are signs that rain could be on the horizon. Some long-range models suggest that rain will return to the forecast beyond the 7-day forecast.

Below is a look at the European model. This model shows rain chances increasing on Thursday, October 13th. The heaviest rain on this future track is across eastern Arkansas.

Potential forecast track: European model

The European model shows the possibility of some beneficial rain falling late next week. Rainfall totals are currently expected to be around half an inch to an inch total.

Rainfall Forecast: European model

The GFS model also shows rain chances on Thursday the 13th, however not quite as widespread and heavy.

Potential forecast track: GFS model

The GFS only shows a few tenths of an inch of rain total now through next Saturday the 15th. Most areas are expected to stay under half an inch.

Rainfall forecast: GFS model

For the immediate next 7 days, the rain chances look to be pretty slim. However, a few isolated showers look possible early next week across mainly northern Arkansas. The Weather Prediction Center shows some slight rain chances for the next 7 days.

Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast.

A bit farther in the future, covering the next 6-10 days, the climate prediction center has all of Arkansas receiving average rainfall. This is valid for October 10th-14th.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day Precipitation Outlook.

Just about the same goes for the next 8-14 days. This is for October 12th-18th. Only far western Arkansas has the chance of slightly above-average precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook.

Overall, current rain chances don’t look overwhelming for the natural state, however, there are signs that some may see some much-needed rain. The models discussed in this article are long-range models. These give meteorologists an idea of future trends and potential forecasts, however, they will likely continue to change as the forecast grows closer.

Stick with the Arkansas Storm Team over the next few days as we continue to monitor rain chances amid the drought.