LITTLE ROCK, Ark- Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their forecast for the 2021 Atlantic tropical season. In their forecast statement, they said they predict based on current patterns a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
What is considered a normal hurricane season?
With a higher chance of observing an above-normal season, it is important to know what is considered a normal season.
Just recently, NOAA updated the new 30-year average that is used to determine what a normal season should look like as we continue through this decade. While there is a slight increase in the numbers, it is important to understand that the reasoning mainly comes from advancements in technology.
With a new era of advanced satellites, we are now capable of observing a storm with higher detail while it is still out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Meteorologist Kristen Kennedy explains more about the new average Atlantic hurricane season HERE.
2021 Atlantic Tropical Season Forecast:
For 2021, NOAA’s CPC predicts 13-20 named storms with 6-10 of those being hurricanes, and 3-5 being major hurricanes.
It is important to note that they are predicting fewer named storms this year compared to 2020’s historic season.
List Of Names & Other Changes For 2021 Season:
In addition to a new set of numbers for what is considered a normal tropical season for the Atlantic, early this year, the World Meteorological Organization met and changed the naming system for Atlantic tropical systems. While the structure of the primary list of names will stay the same, we will no longer use the Greek Alphabet if we exhaust the first list. You can read more about this change HERE.
While Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn’t officially start until June 1st, we’re already keeping an eye on a disturbance way out in the Atlantic. It has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 5 days.