Tracking the Tropics: Mostly quiet in the tropics; still over a month to go in hurricane season

Severe Weather Coverage

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season was full speed ahead through September but the activity has quieted down in October.

However, with about a month and half to go, Tracking the Tropics Meteorologist Amanda Holly doesn’t think we’re in the clear just yet.

Although the longer-range forecast models that try to predict the weather over two weeks out aren’t showing significant activity, it doesn’t mean we couldn’t see a storm spin up off one of the cold fronts that make it down into the Gulf of Mexico, or off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

Areas of deep moisture or clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean always need to be watched closely for any organization.

As of October 13, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic Ocean were relatively quiet with the exception of a weak area of low pressure producing showers and thunderstorms just east of the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center only gives its a 10% chance of developing within the next two and five days. Several environmental factors will prevent significant development and keep any development at at all very slow.

Either way, it is forecast to move northeast, into the central Atlantic, away from the United States by the end of the week.

In the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Pamela made landfall in Mexico. The remnant moisture will move into Texas and portions of Oklahoma through Thursday which could pose a flash and urban flooding threat.

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