The chance for rain and thunderstorms is set to return to The Natural State on Thursday. They will move into Northwest Arkansas in the late morning hours and West Arkansas around Noon.
These thunderstorms will move into Central Arkansas in the afternoon. Widespread rain is expected. However, this first round of storms doesn’t look like it will produce severe weather.
A second round of storms will form in Oklahoma and North Texas Thursday afternoon. These storms will likely become severe with a risk of large hail and tornadoes while they are in Oklahoma and North Texas.
As they approach Arkansas, they will congeal into a line of storms and the damaging wind threat will go up as the tornado and hail threat decreases.
Model guidance suggests that the ingredients for severe weather will not be as strong in Arkansas as they will be in Oklahoma and North Texas, especially in Central and North Arkansas. So, severe weather may not even be possible in Central and North Arkansas. However, it does appear possible in Southwest and far South Arkansas with this second round.
Currently, the Storm Prediction Center shows a level 3 risk in far southwest Arkansas, as well as Texas and Oklahoma where the threat is greater. The rest of southwest and west central Arkansas remains under a level 2 risk.
Much of the rest of Arkansas, excluding northeast Arkansas, is under a level 1 risk. Therefore, the threat is very low, however, a few stronger strong to severe storms are still possible.
Stick with the Arkansas Storm Team as we continue to track this next chance for storms and bring you updates.