The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK is forecasting a chance of severe weather Saturday night into Sunday morning in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Texas, far North Louisiana, West Mississippi, and the Memphis, Tennessee Metro.
Some thunderstorms, possibly supercells, will be in a cluster and come out of Oklahoma and/or Northeast Texas into West Arkansas around 9:00 p.m. Saturday. These storms will likely be elevated over a cool layer of air near the ground, and therefore, they will likely not be surfaced-based. This will pretty much prohibit tornado production, and limit the damaging wind threat unless they form into an MCS, an organized complex of thunderstorms. But these storms may be supportive of large hail the size of quarters or 1″.
So, large hail around 1″ in diameter will be the main threat from these potential storms. The storms may produce a period of very heavy rain, but they will move through quickly, and there will not be multiple thunderstorms that impact the same area. So, some brief localized flooding will be possible, but this doesn’t pose a significant flooding or flash flooding threat.
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