As the heat and humidity continues to build early this week, it will fuel the potential for a few strong to severe storms. This is a very common pattern for this time of year. Hit-or-miss storms can easily build on most summer afternoons. But with very little upper-level support, they are less capable of producing tornadoes.
While that’s a good thing, these summer storms can also be more difficult to predict in terms of timing and location. As of right now, it appears some afternoon pop-up storms will develop somewhere in central and southern Arkansas. These may be capable of producing some hail and damaging wind. But more than anything, they can produce torrential rain and frequent thunder/lightning.
These storms will leave temperatures a bit cooler in spots as we head into the overnight hours. In other words, they will likely use up most of the fuel available for any overnight storms that try to develop.
But if they don’t, models do suggest another round of storms for the late-overnight. These would be capable of producing damaging wind and perhaps some hail, mainly over northern Arkansas during the post-midnight and pre-dawn hours Tuesday.
These will likely be rolling south out of Missouri during the night. If they run into an atmosphere that has already been depleted of fuel, they will likely fall apart. But if there is abundant warm, humid air available; they could thrive into the daylight hours Tuesday morning. Regardless, the severe risk is still very low.
As with those overnight storms, Tuesday’s storms will be highly dependent on how much fuel we are able to re-build during the day. At this time, highs appear to reach into the mid and upper 80s in the afternoon. That, along with more heat and humidity, could be enough to develop a few more strong storms in the afternoon and evening hours.