Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Large hail, damaging wind possible Saturday night

An overnight round of strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday night, especially across central and south Arkansas. The risk is relatively low, thanks to limited instability. But with some of this taking place during the night, we should still remain weather-aware.

Leading up to these storms, a warm front will be draped across Arkansas from northwest to southeast. During the day, this will separate the warmest, more unstable air across southern Arkansas from the coolest, most stable air in northern Arkansas.

Although temperatures will be relatively cool Saturday in central Arkansas, there will still be enough instability aloft to support strong storms later in the evening.

Those storms will likely fire up in northern or northwest Arkansas around or shortly after sunset. During the evening and early overnight, those storms will race southeast toward central and southeast Arkansas. As those storms tap into the more unstable air, they will likely strengthen.

As they strengthen, our primary risk will be large hail. Thunderstorm updrafts could be strong enough to support large hail, perhaps up to golf ball size. As they continue pushing into southern Arkansas, they may tap into even more instability. This could lead to a greater damaging wind risk.

Thankfully, our tornado risk is very low. But it isn’t zero. This threat will be greatest across southwest Arkansas. Considering this is an overnight risk, be sure to have the Arkansas Storm Team app downloaded with notifications turned on. Although it’s unlikely that a tornado warning is issued, we should still have a plan in place just in case we must seek shelter in the night.

Some models have this thunderstorm activity lingering across southern Arkansas up to about daybreak Sunday. But others have it moving out shortly after midnight. Regardless, it should all be out of here by mid-morning if not sooner.