LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – It’s been a wet and warmer-than-average December so far, but winter is quickly approaching. The official start of Winter is 3:47 pm Wednesday, December 21, and it’s definitely going to feel like it.

Our first chance for wintry weather arrives Monday morning. Many Arkansans across central and southern Arkansas could wake up to their first snowflakes of the season. Right now it looks like ground temperatures will be a little too warm to support widespread accumulations. Higher elevations and locations in northern Arkansas could pick up a dusting to half an inch.

Our next chance for snow will be Thursday. This time accumulations look more likely. An arctic cold front will move through Arkansas Thursday, and along it could be accumulating snow. I say “could” because there is a lot of uncertainty with this setup. I’m confident most of Arkansas will see snow, but I’m not confident about how much.

Below I’ve included two different forecast model outputs. The first one is the American Forecasting model and it shows much more snow than the European forecasting model.

With this much uncertainty, my confidence is low on how much snow we will see. This is not the case with temperatures. Confidence is high that we will see extremely cold temperatures from Friday until Christmas. Meteorologist Julianna Cullen will have more details on the Arctic cold in Sunday’s weather blog.

– Meteorologist Alex Libby

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