LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Over the past few weeks you have probably already heard the silky voices of Bing Crosby, Frank Sinatra, or Michael Bublé singing “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas” while shopping at the mall or on your car radio.

For most years in Arkansas, that dream usually doesn’t become a reality. So, what are the chances of a white Christmas in the Natural State, and will we see one this year?

The National Weather Service released a map that shows the likelihood of a white Christmas across the country. According to the National Weather Service, in order for a Christmas to be “white”, there has to be at least 1″ of snow on the ground.

The darker the color the less likely to see a white Christmas. Most of Arkansas is located within the 0-10% chance, but if you look closely at the highest elevations in northwest Arkansas there is a small area of 11-25%!

I went through the data for Fayetteville, Little Rock, and El Dorado to represent different parts of the state. I counted each Christmas that had 1″ of snow on the ground and divided it by the total years of data to get the exact percentage. I also did it for a trace of snow/sleet/ice.

As expected, locations further south have a lower chance of a white Christmas.

Will we see a white Christmas this year?

Unfortunately, the answer is it’s too early to know. Christmas is about three weeks away and anything more than 10 days away is nearly impossible to predict. The best information we have is from the Climate Prediction Center.

Their December outlook shows normal temperatures and slightly above-normal precipitation. Again, this tells us very little about our chances of a white Christmas. Check back with the Arkansas Storm Team in a week or two and we’ll have a much better idea.

– Meteorologist Alex Libby

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The Arkansas Storm Team is a collaboration of two stations to bring you the largest weather team in the state when covering Arkansas weather.