As spring continues, our severe weather risk is also on the rise. Our next chance looks to arrive on Friday. Unfortunately, we’re in a pattern that favors multiple severe risks. Some of the most significant tornado events have been toward the end of a La Nina phase.

This year, we’re transitioning from La Nina to a more neutral phase. That said, we should treat these events with a bit more urgency.

Our next wave will arrive in Arkansas on Friday. As of Wednesday, much of Arkansas is highlighted in a Level 3 risk zone for that day. With strong upper-level support and just enough moisture, there will be a risk for tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail.

The first wave of rain and storms will come late in the day Thursday through the overnight. But these will likely be non-severe as they move through ahead of Friday morning’s warm front.

Once the warm front passes, a strong south wind will import plenty of warm, humid air. This will make the air more unstable. Some morning light showers will be possible. But as we get into the midday hours, more widespread strong storms will build.

These midday storms will likely be stronger, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. There will also be some tornado risk with this round. But an additional round later in the afternoon and through the evening could produce stronger tornadoes. By late evening, these storms will be moving out of the state.

As we always say, we must stay weather-aware during the day through Friday evening. Identify your safe place based on your Friday plans, and be prepared to take action if that risk becomes more imminent.

The stormy pattern looks to continue into next week. An additional risk of severe weather rolls through early next week, perhaps on Tuesday evening.

Severe storms are likely to return early next week.

The Arkansas Storm Team will be keeping you up to date through all risks. So stay with us for the most timely and accurate weather information.