LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- A warm front lifting over Arkansas today is bringing in some warmer and more humid air. It is coming in ahead of a cold front that will pass through Wednesday morning. The increased moisture coupled with some weak lifting will create scattered showers this evening through Wednesday morning.
Over the last few days, we have been watching the severe weather potential with this system. The good news is that this risk is low. This also means that any severe weather attempt would be very isolated in nature. A widespread severe weather event is not expected.
The main risk would be strong but brief wind gusts that could near 60 mph. While the risk is lower but not zero, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Models suggest there are some ingredients for tornado development after midnight until 4 or 5 a.m. Wednesday from southwest to southeast Arkansas and clipping southern Pulaski County. Because of this, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does outline a 2% Tornado Potential in that part of the state and most of central Arkansas, too.
Severe storms are expected to develop in Oklahoma this evening and possibly congeal into a line or a broken line of storms at the Arkansas and Oklahoma border by midnight, but possibly as early as 10 p.m.
Storms may be in the western half of the state by 2 a.m., rolling through the Little Rock metro area around 3-4 a.m. They will be in southeast and east Arkansas by 5 a.m., clearing the state by around 8 a.m.
Since this is a nighttime scenario make sure to have a way to receive weather alerts and that they are set to wake you up if needed. Even if it is a low risk, it is still a risk.