MONDAY, JUNE 14, MORNING UPDATE– The National Hurricane Center is still giving the large area of cloudiness and showers in the Bay of Campeche a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. It will meander along the Mexican coast, and by the end of the week it will begin to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico when it could become a tropical cyclone (tropical depression). Southern Mexico and parts of Central Mexico will receive heavy rain over the next two to three days.
Impact to the U.S. Gulf Coast is possible starting Friday, June 18.
SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE– As of Sunday, June 13th, the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for tropical formation in 5 days to 50%.
Data continues to suggest with increasing confidence that a system will likely form by the middle to end of this week. Beyond formation, a track to the north towards the U.S. coastline would be very likely.
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- As head into the week of, June 14th-18th of 2021, we will be keeping a close eye on the western region of the Gulf of Mexico within the Bay of Campeche.
Right now it is only a 20% chance of development. There is a pattern in place in this area that would encourage tropical formation which is the reason why this needs to be watched.
If successful, a tropical system could form and work its way towards Texas and/or Louisiana coastlines.
Keep in mind we still have time and development may not happen but we will be watching it as it could eventually impact Arkansas weather.