FRIDAY, JUNE 18, UPDATE- Potential tropical cyclone three is still forecast to become a tropical storm, albeit a brief one, before making landfall later tonight. If this forecast comes through fruition, it would become Tropical Storm Claudette.
Regardless of becoming named or not, parts of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida coastlines will deal with increased rainfall activity through the weekend. No impact on Arkansas weather is expected from this system outisde of some cloud cover on Saturday.
THURSDAY, JUNE 17 UPDATE- Based on the latest data, there is a 90% chance of tropical formation within 48 hours over the Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast track continues to narrow down a Louisiana coastline landfall with the overall system curving to the northeast. This would keep nearly all rainfall activity from this system out of the state. Only a small area of southeast Arkansas may deal with a few showers.
Outside of shower activity, there will be some increased wind for the southeast half of the state Saturday. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 16 UPDATE- Over the last few days, we have been keeping an eye on Invest 92-L. That is the official name right now for a tropical wave over the Gulf Of Mexico. As it has since this last weekend, data continues to suggest that tropical formation is likely over the next two days. In fact, the National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 70% chance to form into a tropical system before heading into the weekend.
If it develops the proper tropical characteristics, it would be given the name, Claudette.
After it forms, it is forecast to move north towards the U.S. coastline making landfall sometime on Saturday, June 19th. At this time, it is difficult to say exactly where that landfall will take place. Regardless, heavy rainfall is forecast anywhere from Lake Charles, LA, east through the Florida Panhandle.
Strength-wise, there is not a lot of encouragement for intense development but this tropical wave could become a tropical storm before landfall. Again, as mentioned above, regardless of strength, it will bring a lot of rain to the Gulf Coast.
Arkansas impacts- At this time, Arkansas looks to have a very minimal impact from this system as the wind pattern over the Central U.S. & Gulf of Mexico should keep this turning sharp to the northeast after landfall.
MONDAY, JUNE 14 UPDATE– The National Hurricane Center is still giving the large area of cloudiness and showers in the Bay of Campeche a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. It will meander along the Mexican coast, and by the end of the week it will begin to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico when it could become a tropical cyclone (tropical depression). Southern Mexico and parts of Central Mexico will receive heavy rain over the next two to three days.
Impact to the U.S. Gulf Coast is possible starting Friday, June 18.
SUNDAY, JUNE 13 UPDATE– As of Sunday, June 13th, the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for tropical formation in 5 days to 50%.
Data continues to suggest with increasing confidence that a system will likely form by the middle to end of this week. Beyond formation, a track to the north towards the U.S. coastline would be very likely.
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- As head into the week of, June 14th-18th of 2021, we will be keeping a close eye on the western region of the Gulf of Mexico within the Bay of Campeche.
Right now it is only a 20% chance of development. There is a pattern in place in this area that would encourage tropical formation which is the reason why this needs to be watched.
If successful, a tropical system could form and work its way towards Texas and/or Louisiana coastlines.
Keep in mind we still have time and development may not happen but we will be watching it as it could eventually impact Arkansas weather.